Nigeria’s billionaire businessman and investor Femi Otedola has sparked fresh conversations about the future of the naira after predicting that the local currency could strengthen significantly against the United States dollar before the end of the year.

The optimistic outlook came after he congratulated industrialist Aliko Dangote on the Dangote Refinery reaching full production capacity. According to Otedola, the refinery’s impact on Nigeria’s foreign exchange demand could play a major role in stabilising the naira in the coming months.

His statement has generated mixed reactions across economic circles, with some analysts welcoming the projection while others cautioning that exchange rate recovery depends on broader structural reforms and sustained policy stability.

Otedola explained that domestic refining of petroleum products could ease pressure on Nigeria’s foreign exchange market. For decades, Nigeria relied heavily on imported fuel, which increased demand for dollars and contributed to currency volatility.

With the Dangote Refinery now producing large volumes of refined fuel locally, he believes the country may spend less foreign currency on imports. This shift, he noted, could help the naira gain strength over time.

Reports indicate that the refinery is capable of supplying millions of litres of petrol daily, a development many observers see as a turning point for Nigeria’s energy independence. Otedola stated that reduced reliance on fuel imports could significantly improve forex liquidity and support currency appreciation. 

He added that trading below ₦1,000 per dollar is “increasingly within reach,” a statement that quickly gained traction online and sparked debate among investors and market watchers.

While some Nigerians welcomed the projection as a sign of potential economic recovery, others remain cautious. The naira has faced intense pressure in recent years due to inflation, fluctuating oil revenues, and ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market.

Analysts say that although domestic refining could reduce import bills, exchange rate stability also depends on factors such as foreign investment inflows, monetary policy direction, and overall economic growth.

Financial experts emphasise that predictions from business leaders often reflect optimism about long term structural changes rather than guaranteed short term outcomes. Nonetheless, Otedola’s comments have renewed attention on the role of the Dangote Refinery in shaping Nigeria’s economic outlook.

For many Nigerians, the possibility of the naira strengthening below ₦1,000 per dollar represents hope for improved purchasing power and reduced pressure on everyday living costs, especially as fuel supply dynamics continue to evolve.