The political faceoff between Rauf Aregbesola, a former governor of Osun State, and Gboyega Oyetola, current governor, may be believable for the defeat of the All Progressives Congress (APC) by the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in the off-season gubernatorial election in the state Saturday, July 16, 2022.
Following the stalemate, Aregbesola has continued to stay away from the APC activities in the state.
Aregbesola, who is the current minister of Interior, had endorsed Moshood Adeoti, a former secretary to the state government, against Oyetola, who was also his chief of staff when he served as governor of the state for eight years.
The cold relationship has since affected the good harmony that Aregbesola had with Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the presidential candidate of the APC.
During the primary election, Aregbesola was said to have boycotted the exercise.
He was also absent at the mega rally for the re-election of Oyetola, held in Osogbo on Tuesday.
The scenario repeated itself Saturday when the minister decided to stay away without participating in the real election.
Osun APC became disconnected along power blocs as a result of the face-off. There were reports of assaults by supporters of some chieftains. The deterioration of war also led to the arrest of many youths suspected to have been financed by some politicians to settle some political scores.
When reached on phone on why the minister was not present in the state to participate in the voting process, Sola Frasure, his media aide, said, “Oga didn’t come home for the election.”
Frasure, however, refused to speak on why his boss refused to come home for the governorship election and ensure the re-election of his former Chief of Staff.
Observers strongly think that had the APC house been intact, the PDP would not have carried the day.
A political analyst, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said that Aregbesola’s absence in the state’s party activities was dangerous to the APC.
“I must tell you that Rauf Aregbesola meant a lot to many people in Osun. To govern a state like Osun twice is not something anyone can trivialize. He made a serious imprint there. So when the crisis arose, a lot of people moved to other parties while some agreed to be indifferent. They withheld their backing and that largely contributed to the defeat handed to the APC in the election,” the analyst said.
Asked why the solid support from the likes of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, presidential candidate of the party, could not help Governor Oyetola, the analyst said: “Don’t forget that Tinubu has never governed the state; he is only playing a ‘big brother’ role; also given his refined relationship with Aregbesola, his rating in Osun seems to be declining or to have declined considerably. Had they gone into the election together as they did in 2018, the story would have been a different case.”
Raphael Oke, a Political Scientist, said he was certain that Aregbesola’s absence affected the APC. He also said that what happened in Osun was a bad omen for the APC as they go into the Presidential election in 2023.
According to Oke, “Governor Oyetola is not a politician in the real understanding of the word. It was Aregbe that made him win in 2018. What it means is that Aregbe has pulled the rug under Oyetola. Even Tinubu could not help him. By the way, the result is a reflection of the level of political awareness in the polity. The 2023 general election will spring up too many shocks for the APC. That’s the indication, and that’s how I observe it.”
A spectator, who claimed to be very close to the balconies of power in Osogbo, said he was shocked that there could be such a level of dispute between Aregbesola and Oyetola.
“It is unbelievable that less than four years after Aregbesola crossed the length and breadth of the state, campaigning for Oyetola, both of them would be so broken apart; this shows the nature of politicians in Nigeria. I think we are in for more wonders in 2023.”
Before the election, some pundits had thought that the APC was better placed to win considering the internal crisis in the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) that initially influenced its mega rally arrangement.
Some observers have also criticized the failure of the APC at the federal level as being partly responsible for the loss the party suffered in the Saturday election.